The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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July temperature update sees more of the same

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The UAH global average temperature anomaly was closer to the 2007 Bet base-year average that the IPCC-Gore warming projection again in July 2018. That has been the case  for every month of this year, so far. Note also that for more than 75% of the 127 months of the bet so far, the temperature anomaly has not been outside of the range of the 2007 monthly averages. The updated chart is available at the top right of this page.

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August 9th, 2018 at 3:01 pm

June 2018 temperature falls near middle of 2007 base year range

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The UAH mean global temperature anomaly estimate for June 2018 was 0.21ºC. For the year-to-date, the average is cooler than the average for last three years, and close to the 2007 Bet base year average. The monthly anomalies in 2007 ranged between -0.04 and 0.43°C.

An inspection of the updated chart (top right) of this page shows that the recorded temperature has only infrequently exceeded the  IPCC/Gore projection of 3ºC per century of warming. In fact the recorded temperature has been lower than the dangerous warming projection for 82% of months since the end of 2007. That figure compares unfavourably with the 57% of months for which the actual temperature was warmer than Armstrong’s bet on the no-change forecast. Note that a figure of 50% would be unbiased.

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July 10th, 2018 at 7:07 pm

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Science, and forecasting climate

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Scott Armstrong presented a paper at the International Symposium on Forecasting in Boulder, CO, on 19 June titled “Do Forecasters of Dangerous Manmade Global Warming Follow the Science?”. A pdf copy of the slides is available from ResearchGate, here.

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July 5th, 2018 at 12:50 pm

May 2018 temperature close to 2007 average

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After two years or so of warmer temperatures, 2018 global average temperatures have so far been close to the 2007 average. That figure—an “anomaly” of 0.159°C—is the baseline for the Scott Armstrong’s “Bet” with Al Gore, and hence the value of the no-change forecast that Professor Armstrong is backing against Mr Gore and the IPCC’s dangerous global warming projection. The updated temperature chart can be seen in detail by clicking on the Whole-Earth Thermometer image to the top right of this page.

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June 7th, 2018 at 6:24 pm

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Are we living on a dangerously warming planet?

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The news keeps coming in from the New York Times and other media that there is no longer any doubt that the Earth is getting dangerous warmer. If you believe that to be true, there is nothing that we can say to change your opinion. Only you can do that. And to do so, you first need to address this question: “Could I imagine anything that could possibly change my mind?”

If so, you might be interested in the short article on WUWT titled “Is the Earth becoming dangerously warmer?“. It might provide the information you are seeking.

April 2018 temperatures show little change

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Our update of the Whole-Earth Thermometer chart (to the upper right of this page) with the UAH April 2018 global mean temperatures shows temperatures were remarkably close to the 2007 Climate Bet base year average of 0.16°C.

The chart as a whole could reasonably be characterised as showing temperatures drifting sideways, largely within a +/-0.3°C band. Not surprisingly, then, the cumulative absolute error of the Gore/IPCC dangerous warming projection has been smaller than that of the no-trend forecast for only 2 of the 124 months of the bet so far, and that was back in September and October 2010.

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May 7th, 2018 at 10:53 am

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March 2018 cooler than same month of 2007 Bet base year

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Temperatures have drifted up and down since Mr Gore warned of a dangerous warming “tipping point” at the start of 2007, as they always have. Eleven years on, the temperatures recorded for the first 3 months of this year look remarkably similar to the first 3 months of 2007: 0.26°C, 0.20°C, and 0.24°C compared to 0.43°C, 0.19°C, and 0.26°C. See the updated chart to the right, and click for a larger image and table.

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April 14th, 2018 at 7:20 pm

February 2018 temperatures same as 11 years ago

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The UAH global temperature anomaly for February 2018 was 0.20°C, which is little different from the February 2007 figure of 0.19°C, and lower than January and March 2007 figure of 0.43°C and 0.26°C. The updated chart for the extended (20 year) Climate Bet is at right. Click on the thumbnail chart for a larger image.

Some critics of our recent analysis of the Climate Bet at 10 years argued that  Read the rest of this entry »

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March 12th, 2018 at 3:44 pm

Climate Bet starts a second 10 years with cooler month: January 2018

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With Professor Armstrong keen to put his evidence-based no-change forecast to the test for a further ten years, we have updated the Climate Bet chart with the 121st bet month of UAH lower troposphere data. January 2018’s global temperature anomaly was 0.10°C higher than the forecast of no trend in temperatures from the 2007 average, and 0.22°C lower than the “dangerous manmade global warming” Gore/IPCC +3°C per century extrapolation.

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February 28th, 2018 at 9:55 am

Tipping point 10 years on: Who won the Armstrong-Gore “bet” on the climate?

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The Challenge

In 2007, University of Pennsylvania Professor J. Scott Armstrong challenged former U.S. Vice President Albert Gore to a bet on what would happen to global average temperatures over the next 10 years. Professor Armstrong’s challenge was in response to Mr. Gore’s warning of a looming dangerous “tipping point” in temperatures. But when even scientists who are expert in a field make predictions about complex situation without using scientific forecasting methods, their forecasts have no value. The proposed $10,000 bet, then, was intended to draw attention to the need to assess the predictive validity of climate forecasts in an objective manner. Read the rest of this entry »