The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Politico-Scientific establishment rushes to climate alarm

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David Rose’s 5 February, 2017, article in the Mail on Sunday has been receiving a lot of attention with its reporting of the rushed publication of a NOAA-authored article in the high-status journal Science in order to “influence the Paris agreement on climate change”. The article’s claim that there had been no “pause” in global warming was not only at odds with other published data, we now know that it was based on “misleading, ‘unverified’ data.”

The Rose article’s headline, “Exposed: How world leaders were duped into investing billions over manipulated global warming data”, hints at how much is at stake over the climate change issue. The article is available, here. Professor Judith Curry provides commentary on the commentary in her blog post titled “Response to critiques: Climate scientists versus climate data”, here. Anthony Watts has also posted commentary at his Watts Up With That? site that includes a chart, which will be of particular interest to Australian readers, that shows raw and adjusted Alice Springs temperature data since about 1880, here. The chart is reproduced, below.

alicefeb17.png

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February 8th, 2017 at 12:34 pm

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2017 ends on a cooler note: Gore remains less accurate than no-change after 9 years

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We have updated the Climate Bet chart with the December 2016 global temperature anomaly data from UAH. (Click on the small chart to the right for a more detailed image.) 2016 was a warm El Niño year, but ended with a sharply cooler month at 0.24°C; somewhat closer to Professor Armstrong’s no-change forecast of 0.159°C than to Mr Gore’s IPCC dangerous warming trend figure for December 2016 of 0.443°C.

With the data in for 9 of the Climate Bet’s 10 years, the cumulative absolute error of the dangerous warming trend that the IPCC and Mr Gore warned that we should expect is nearly 23% greater than the error of the scientific no-change forecast that is the basis of Professor Armstrong’s bet. The no-change forecast has been more accurate in 78 of the 108 months of The Bet to-date.

Despite 30 months of The Bet in which the warming trend was more accurate, the cumulative error of the Gore/IPPC dangerous warming projection has been larger than Armstrong/no-trend forecast for all but two months of the bet so far.

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January 8th, 2017 at 10:50 am

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A new lease on life for the climate bet with 14 warmer months in a row

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November 2016: After 14 months of global average temperatures closer to Mr Gore’s warming scenario than to Professor Armstrong’s bet on no-trend, the Climate Bet is more in contention than it has been for the past four years. Some commentators expectations of a rapid cooling after the recent warm El Niño months have not so far been realised in global average temperature anomaly.

So, with only 13 months of The Bet remaining, what would need to happen to temperatures over that time for Mr Gore to win the bet—had he been willing to take it. After November’s 0.45°C outturn, and a total of 107 months of the bet, Mr Gore’s cumulative absolute error is nearly 21% greater than Professor Armstrong’s. As a consequence, global temperatures would need to average higher than they were in November for the remainder of the bet period. Temperature anomalies have exceeded that level in 9 months of the bet period to date.

Followers of the site may have noticed that we have not posted news items over the past few months. Please accept our apologies. Having overcome some software and administrative problems, we expect to be posting updates regularly for the remainder of the bet period.

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December 8th, 2016 at 12:19 pm

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May, then June, saw big falls in temperature anomalies

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From a global average anomaly of 0.71°C for April, temperatures dropped to 0.34°C for June 2016, two months later. The fall in average temperatures of 0.37°C is the largest two-month decline in the history of the Armstrong-Gore Climate Bet, and closely matches the record two-month increase of 0.38°C that occurred between December 2015 and February of this year.

Despite the rapid cooling, June was still relatively warm, and so the month counts as a win for Mr Gore. He needs temperatures to pick up again rapidly, and stay well up, if he is to have a chance of winning the bet, which ends at the end of next year. For the latest data and chart, click on the small chart to the top right of the page.

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July 12th, 2016 at 6:01 pm

Regulate the climate?: A new resource on the effects of regs

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Advocates of the dangerous manmade global warming hypothesis call for regulations in response to their alarm. Assume for a moment that the alarmists’ feverish scenarios really were going to come to pass… would regulations make the situation better?

The Iron Law of Regulation suggests otherwise. For a new site from Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong that is devoted to experimental evidence on the effects of regulations, see IronLawofRegulation.com.

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June 20th, 2016 at 7:34 pm

May 2016 sees temperatures climb down from El Niño peak

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The May global average temperature was down by 0.16ºC from the previous month as the El Niño weather system weakened. The 0.55ºC May figure was nevertheless still warmer than the earlier, 2010, peak in temperatures. In other words, we have been experiencing the kinds of temperatures that the dangerous manmade warming alarmists have been warning would be harmful. We wonder how much additional net harm (i.e., after allowing for additional benefits) was caused by the warmer average temperatures over the last six or eight months?

For a larger view of the updated Climate Bet chart, click on the small chart to the top right of this page.

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June 14th, 2016 at 11:08 am

April ’16: Another month warming Mr Gore’s bet hopes

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Last month we noted that if temperatures remained at around the same level as they averaged for the first three months of 2016, Mr Gore could win the Climate Bet. The figure—global average temperature anomaly—was +0.7°C.

We didn’t fancy his chances given that the figure is a high for the satellite record and is associated with a strong El Niño weather pattern. The warmth bringing El Niño weather pattern is followed by cooling La Niña weather. One month on, however, the April 2016 figure turned out to be +0.71°C. We imagine Mr Gore must be overjoyed!

With 20 months of the 10-year bet to go, we still don’t fancy Mr Gore’s chances that 0.7°C temperature anomalies will continue. We’ll keep you posted.

 

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May 10th, 2016 at 12:20 pm

Earth Day 1970 predictions: Evidence of bias?

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Here’s one: “Demographers agree almost unanimously… thirty years from now,… the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine”. (The “almost unanimously” claim might sound familiar to those who have been paying any attention to the media coverage of the current global warming alarm.)

If you’ve got the stomach for it, The Daily Caller provides a list of “7 enviro predictions from Earth Day 1970 that were just dead wrong”. That the alarming forecasts were so wrong should be of no surprise to anyone who is familiar with the Golden Rule of Forecasting, or with Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong’s study of analogies to the global warming alarm.

The Daily Caller article, available here, describes the forecasts and the  very different outcomes. The directions of the errors is all in the same direction. A reasonable person might wonder if, in addition to ignorance of other aspects of good forecasting practice, bias played an important role.

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April 23rd, 2016 at 1:01 pm

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Gore would win bet, if temperatures stay this warm

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While, after 99 months of the Climate Bet, Mr Gore’s forecast errors are 37% larger than Professor Armstrong’s, it is mathematically possible for Mr Gore to win. For that to happen, however, the global average temperature anomaly would have to stay around the average of the first three months of this year, +0.7°C. We will keep you posted!

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April 9th, 2016 at 1:57 pm

Five warmer months give bet hope for warmers

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We’ve had to adjust the Climate Bet chart to make room for the February 2016 UAH global average temperature anomaly of +0.83°C above the 1981-2010 average. For five months in a row now, Mr Gore and IPCC’s warming projection was more accurate than Professor Armstrong’s no-change-from-2007 forecast. The last time Mr Gore got such a run was in 2010, when the IPCC warming projection was more accurate for the first 10 months of the year.

Overall, however, the errors of IPPC projection are still as much as 40% larger than the errors from the evidence-based forecast of no change.

Mr Gore’s chances of winning the bet must, nevertheless, have improved with the latest figure. To put the data into perspective, if the temperature anomaly remained at or above .437°C for the last 22 months of The Bet—to the end of 2017—Mr Gore would win.

Perhaps Mr Gore will he change his mind and decide that he would like to put some of his own money at stake. He should be aware that the .437°C figure has only been equaled or beaten 7 times over the 98 months of The Global Warming Challenge to date, but that statistic will presumably carry little weight for those who, like Mr Gore, believe in the coming of a “tipping point”.

See the updated Climate Bet chart to the right.

Written by admin

March 12th, 2016 at 10:12 am