The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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March 2018 cooler than same month of 2007 Bet base year

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Temperatures have drifted up and down since Mr Gore warned of a dangerous warming “tipping point” at the start of 2007, as they always have. Eleven years on, the temperatures recorded for the first 3 months of this year look remarkably similar to the first 3 months of 2007: 0.26°C, 0.20°C, and 0.24°C compared to 0.43°C, 0.19°C, and 0.26°C. See the updated chart to the right, and click for a larger image and table.

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April 14th, 2018 at 7:20 pm

February 2018 temperatures same as 11 years ago

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The UAH global temperature anomaly for February 2018 was 0.20°C, which is little different from the February 2007 figure of 0.19°C, and lower than January and March 2007 figure of 0.43°C and 0.26°C. The updated chart for the extended (20 year) Climate Bet is at right. Click on the thumbnail chart for a larger image.

Some critics of our recent analysis of the Climate Bet at 10 years argued that  Read the rest of this entry »

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March 12th, 2018 at 3:44 pm

Climate Bet starts a second 10 years with cooler month: January 2018

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With Professor Armstrong keen to put his evidence-based no-change forecast to the test for a further ten years, we have updated the Climate Bet chart with the 121st bet month of UAH lower troposphere data. January 2018’s global temperature anomaly was 0.10°C higher than the forecast of no trend in temperatures from the 2007 average, and 0.22°C lower than the “dangerous manmade global warming” Gore/IPCC +3°C per century extrapolation.

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February 28th, 2018 at 9:55 am

Tipping point 10 years on: Who won the Armstrong-Gore “bet” on the climate?

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The Challenge

In 2007, University of Pennsylvania Professor J. Scott Armstrong challenged former U.S. Vice President Albert Gore to a bet on what would happen to global average temperatures over the next 10 years. Professor Armstrong’s challenge was in response to Mr. Gore’s warning of a looming dangerous “tipping point” in temperatures. But when even scientists who are expert in a field make predictions about complex situation without using scientific forecasting methods, their forecasts have no value. The proposed $10,000 bet, then, was intended to draw attention to the need to assess the predictive validity of climate forecasts in an objective manner. Read the rest of this entry »

November 2017 sees warmth ease

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At 0.36°C, the UAH November global average lower-troposphere temperature anomaly was lower than the 2016 average and roughly equal to the 2017 average to-date. Despite being down, the November figure is closer to the Gore-IPCC projection than to the Armstrong-no-change forecast—that has been the case for 31% of the 119 months of the bet to-date.

With only one month of the 10-year bet remaining, we will hold off on more detailed analysis until the new year. To see the latest data, click on the miniature chart to the right of the page.

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December 12th, 2017 at 2:36 pm

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October 2017 sees three warmer months in a row

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With a monthly anomaly of 0.63°C (UAH Lower Troposphere), October was the third month in a row with temperatures closer to the IPCC/Gore dangerous manmade warming scenario than to Professor Armstrong’s no-trend forecast from Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009).

With two months of the 120 month (2-year) Climate Bet to go, however, the absolute error of Mr Gore’s projection remains more than 15% larger than Professor Armstrong’s.

For the latest chart and data, click on the small chart image on the top right of this page.

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November 8th, 2017 at 11:24 am

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September 2017 warmer

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The September global average temperature anomaly was, at +0.54°C, the 5th warmest month of the 117 months of the 10-year bet so far.

The Gore/IPCC projection has provided a more accurate prediction of the temperature than Professor Armstrong’s no-change forecast for 19 of the last 24 months. Overall, however, the no-change forecast has been more accurate for 70% of the months of the bet so far.

Click on the chart on the top right of the page to see that latest data.

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October 6th, 2017 at 2:25 pm

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August 2017 warmth keeps the Climate Bet interesting

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After two cooler months that were closer to Professor Armstrong’s bet on the Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009) no-trend forecast than to the Gore-IPCC manmade global warming projection, the UAH’s August global average temperature “anomaly” was, at +0.41°C, close to the warming projection’s 0.46°C for the month.

The August figure means that temperatures have been closer to the Gore-IPCC projection for four of the eight months of 2017 so far, and the absolute error for that period has been nearly 14 percent smaller than the no-trend forecast error.

With only four months of the ten-year bet remaining, we look forward to presenting detailed analysis of the full period of The Bet in the New Year.

To see the updated chart in large, click on the image at the top of the right hand column.

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September 19th, 2017 at 11:14 am

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July 2017: Another unremarkable month for the global average temperature

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The  global mean temperature anomaly for the month of July 2017, as estimated by the UAH  climate scientists, was 0.29°C. If it weren’t for the cries of alarm about what Mr Gore and others speculate might happen, there would be little interest in this obscure and unremarkable measurement.

Mr Gore and the IPCC did raise the alarm, however, so here on theclimatebet.com site we will continue to monitor the performance of Mr Gore and the IPCC’s 3°C per century of warming projection relative to Professor Armstrong’s bet on scientific forecasting forecasting and the Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009) no-change model. With only 5 months of the ten-year notional bet left to run, the cumulative absolute error of the Gore/IPCC projection is 21% larger than the error of the scientific forecast.

On “Alarming Climate: Expert opinions and government funding versus scientific forecasting”

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Kesten Green, Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon responded to MIT President Reif’s apparently unshaken belief in dangerous manmade global warming in a letter published by WUWT on July 20. The letter starts as follows:

On June 17, we and our co-authors received a response to our letter to MIT President, Professor Reif, raising concerns about his letter to the MIT community in support of the Paris Climate Accord. Professor Reif’s response stated that he was confident in his position on the issue because it is consistent with the beliefs of experts that implementation of the Paris Accord is necessary to save the world from harmful effects of man-made global warming. We are not reassured.

The read the full letter, published on WUWT under the headline “Alarums And Excursions”, here.