The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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“…new report from the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change show humans are not causing a climate crisis”

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A new 1,000-page report titled Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change was presented on December 4 in Katowice, Poland. (In case you missed it, Katowice is where the many delegates to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change gathered from far and wide to argue for climate alarm.)

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels assesses the costs and benefits of the use of fossil fuels (principally coal, oil, and natural gas) by reviewing scientific and economic literature on organic chemistry, climate science, public health, economic history, human security, and theoretical studies based on integrated assessment models (IAMs). It is the fifth volume in the Climate Change Reconsidered series and, like the preceding volumes, it focuses on research overlooked or ignored by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The chapters of the report are:

Part 1: Foundations
1. Environmental Economics
2. Climate Science

Part II: Benefits of Fossil Fuels
3. Human Prosperity
4. Human Health Benefits
5. Environmental Benefits

Part III: Costs of Fossil Fuels
6. Air Quality
7. Human Security
8. Cost-Benefit Analysis

A press release, Summary for Policymakers, the report itself as one large file, and individual chapters are available to download from the NIPCC site, here.

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December 7th, 2018 at 2:15 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

November 2018 temperature data, and the UAH trend

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The November lower troposphere global temperature anomaly from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) team is just out, is little different from recent months, and remains close to the 2007 average that is the base-year of The Climate Bet.

The UAH series now covers nearly 40 years of monthly observations. Over that time, the change in the global average temperature from month to month has been quite small: the absolute change has averaged a little less than 0.1°C, with half warmer than the previous month, and half cooler.

Despite the obvious up-and-down nature of the series, some commentators continue to look for evidence of a trend hiding in the noise of monthly and annual volatility. For example the IPCC’s, business as usual 3°C-per-Century should be evident in 40 years of data if it amounted to a real trend.

Followers of the IPCC would presumably be pleasantly surprised, then, to learn that the trend to date amounts to little more than 0.001°C-per-month; less than 1.3°C-per-Century. In other words, from month-to-month the typical up or down change is in the order of a 100 times larger than the “trend.”

If the well-hidden trend happened to continue for a further 60 years, we should be reassured that it is much closer to the no-change forecast than to the dangerous warming scenario. There continues to be neither reason to worry, nor reason for governments to implement expensive programmes and regulations.

For the updated “Whole-Earth Thermometer” reading, click on the small chart to the top right of the page for a more detailed image.

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December 5th, 2018 at 2:35 pm

October 2018 temperatures in the middle of the 2007 base year range

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The 2007 base year of The Bet saw UAH global temperature anomalies range from 0.43°C to -0.13°C. The latest figure—of 0.22°C for October 2018—lies more-or-less in the middle of that range.

Of the 130 months of the extended Bet, so far, 32 months—less than one-quarter—have fallen outside the base-year range. Of those months with temperatures falling outside that range, nearly one-half (47%) were cooler than the coolest month of 2017.

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November 9th, 2018 at 10:32 am

“DataGate” – The official temperature series from Hadley audited

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From time to time we explain on this site why we use the fully disclosed and audited University of Alabama satellite reading derived lower troposphere temperature series for adjudicating the progress of The Climate Bet. And now the temperature data that are relied upon by the IPCC and policy makers around the world have been audited.

“Thanks to Dr John McLean, we see how The IPCC demands for cash rest on freak data, empty fields, Fahrenheit temps recorded as Celsius, mistakes in longitude and latitude, brutal adjustments and even spelling errors…

There are cases of tropical islands recording a monthly average of zero degrees — this is the mean of the daily highs and lows for the month. A spot in Romania spent one whole month averaging minus 45 degrees. One site in Colombia recorded three months of over 80 degrees C.”

For more on Dr McLean’s report documenting the unreliability of the Hadley Centre’s data, see Jo Nova’s blog entry, here.

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October 11th, 2018 at 10:47 am

September 2018 temperatures drift lower

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The UAH temperature anomaly for September was for the first time since July 2015 lower than the 2007 base year average that is the basis for the Climate Bet. With that latest dip in the global mean temperature, 42% of the 129 months of the extended bet period have seen temperatures lower than the base year average, which is also the no-change forecast proposed for the “Bet” by Professor Armstrong.

To put the 42% figure into context, consider that over a long period of time one would expect the actual temperature to be lower than an unbiased forecast about half of the time, and above it half of the time. While 42% is not 50%, contrast the figure with the percentage of months for which the actual temperature was greater than the Gore/IPCC global warming extrapolation of 0.3°C per decade… that figure is less than 19%.

With 111 months of the second decade of the bet remaining, the actual temperature would need to be below the 2007 average for 59.4% of months for the no-change forecasts to be counted as “perfectly” unbiased. For the dangerous warming forecast to be considered “perfectly” unbiased, actual temperatures would need to fall above the 0.3°C per decade trend line for 86.4% of months.

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October 6th, 2018 at 3:04 pm

August 2018 global average temperatures unremarkable

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The latest lower troposphere—the part of the Earth’s atmosphere where weather occurs and life exists—monthly average temperature anomaly from UAH is shown in the revised chart to the top right of this page. Click the thumbnail image for a larger image and table of recent data.

The August figure was 0.19°C, little different from the 2007 Bet base year average of 0.16°C.

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September 17th, 2018 at 10:34 am

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July temperature update sees more of the same

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The UAH global average temperature anomaly was closer to the 2007 Bet base-year average that the IPCC-Gore warming projection again in July 2018. That has been the case  for every month of this year, so far. Note also that for more than 75% of the 127 months of the bet so far, the temperature anomaly has not been outside of the range of the 2007 monthly averages. The updated chart is available at the top right of this page.

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August 9th, 2018 at 3:01 pm

June 2018 temperature falls near middle of 2007 base year range

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The UAH mean global temperature anomaly estimate for June 2018 was 0.21ºC. For the year-to-date, the average is cooler than the average for last three years, and close to the 2007 Bet base year average. The monthly anomalies in 2007 ranged between -0.04 and 0.43°C.

An inspection of the updated chart (top right) of this page shows that the recorded temperature has only infrequently exceeded the  IPCC/Gore projection of 3ºC per century of warming. In fact the recorded temperature has been lower than the dangerous warming projection for 82% of months since the end of 2007. That figure compares unfavourably with the 57% of months for which the actual temperature was warmer than Armstrong’s bet on the no-change forecast. Note that a figure of 50% would be unbiased.

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July 10th, 2018 at 7:07 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Science, and forecasting climate

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Scott Armstrong presented a paper at the International Symposium on Forecasting in Boulder, CO, on 19 June titled “Do Forecasters of Dangerous Manmade Global Warming Follow the Science?”. A pdf copy of the slides is available from ResearchGate, here.

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July 5th, 2018 at 12:50 pm

May 2018 temperature close to 2007 average

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After two years or so of warmer temperatures, 2018 global average temperatures have so far been close to the 2007 average. That figure—an “anomaly” of 0.159°C—is the baseline for the Scott Armstrong’s “Bet” with Al Gore, and hence the value of the no-change forecast that Professor Armstrong is backing against Mr Gore and the IPCC’s dangerous global warming projection. The updated temperature chart can be seen in detail by clicking on the Whole-Earth Thermometer image to the top right of this page.

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June 7th, 2018 at 6:24 pm

Posted in Uncategorized