The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

longines,tissot,fake rolex for sale,rolex day date,zenith,rolex datejust,cartier,omega,replica watches,u boat,rolex milgauss,patek philippe,rolex masterpiece,montblanc,rolex replica,a lange sohne,panerai,tag heuer

“DataGate” – The official temperature series from Hadley audited

without comments

From time to time we explain on this site why we use the fully disclosed and audited University of Alabama satellite reading derived lower troposphere temperature series for adjudicating the progress of The Climate Bet. And now the temperature data that are relied upon by the IPCC and policy makers around the world have been audited.

“Thanks to Dr John McLean, we see how The IPCC demands for cash rest on freak data, empty fields, Fahrenheit temps recorded as Celsius, mistakes in longitude and latitude, brutal adjustments and even spelling errors…

There are cases of tropical islands recording a monthly average of zero degrees — this is the mean of the daily highs and lows for the month. A spot in Romania spent one whole month averaging minus 45 degrees. One site in Colombia recorded three months of over 80 degrees C.”

For more on Dr McLean’s report documenting the unreliability of the Hadley Centre’s data, see Jo Nova’s blog entry, here.

Written by admin

October 11th, 2018 at 10:47 am

September 2018 temperatures drift lower

without comments

The UAH temperature anomaly for September was for the first time since July 2015 lower than the 2007 base year average that is the basis for the Climate Bet. With that latest dip in the global mean temperature, 42% of the 129 months of the extended bet period have seen temperatures lower than the base year average, which is also the no-change forecast proposed for the “Bet” by Professor Armstrong.

To put the 42% figure into context, consider that over a long period of time one would expect the actual temperature to be lower than an unbiased forecast about half of the time, and above it half of the time. While 42% is not 50%, contrast the figure with the percentage of months for which the actual temperature was greater than the Gore/IPCC global warming extrapolation of 0.3°C per decade… that figure is less than 19%.

With 111 months of the second decade of the bet remaining, the actual temperature would need to be below the 2007 average for 59.4% of months for the no-change forecasts to be counted as “perfectly” unbiased. For the dangerous warming forecast to be considered “perfectly” unbiased, actual temperatures would need to fall above the 0.3°C per decade trend line for 86.4% of months.

Written by admin

October 6th, 2018 at 3:04 pm

August 2018 global average temperatures unremarkable

without comments

The latest lower troposphere—the part of the Earth’s atmosphere where weather occurs and life exists—monthly average temperature anomaly from UAH is shown in the revised chart to the top right of this page. Click the thumbnail image for a larger image and table of recent data.

The August figure was 0.19°C, little different from the 2007 Bet base year average of 0.16°C.

Written by admin

September 17th, 2018 at 10:34 am

Posted in the challenge

July temperature update sees more of the same

without comments

The UAH global average temperature anomaly was closer to the 2007 Bet base-year average that the IPCC-Gore warming projection again in July 2018. That has been the case  for every month of this year, so far. Note also that for more than 75% of the 127 months of the bet so far, the temperature anomaly has not been outside of the range of the 2007 monthly averages. The updated chart is available at the top right of this page.

Written by admin

August 9th, 2018 at 3:01 pm

June 2018 temperature falls near middle of 2007 base year range

without comments

The UAH mean global temperature anomaly estimate for June 2018 was 0.21ºC. For the year-to-date, the average is cooler than the average for last three years, and close to the 2007 Bet base year average. The monthly anomalies in 2007 ranged between -0.04 and 0.43°C.

An inspection of the updated chart (top right) of this page shows that the recorded temperature has only infrequently exceeded the  IPCC/Gore projection of 3ºC per century of warming. In fact the recorded temperature has been lower than the dangerous warming projection for 82% of months since the end of 2007. That figure compares unfavourably with the 57% of months for which the actual temperature was warmer than Armstrong’s bet on the no-change forecast. Note that a figure of 50% would be unbiased.

Written by admin

July 10th, 2018 at 7:07 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Science, and forecasting climate

without comments

Scott Armstrong presented a paper at the International Symposium on Forecasting in Boulder, CO, on 19 June titled “Do Forecasters of Dangerous Manmade Global Warming Follow the Science?”. A pdf copy of the slides is available from ResearchGate, here.

Written by admin

July 5th, 2018 at 12:50 pm

May 2018 temperature close to 2007 average

without comments

After two years or so of warmer temperatures, 2018 global average temperatures have so far been close to the 2007 average. That figure—an “anomaly” of 0.159°C—is the baseline for the Scott Armstrong’s “Bet” with Al Gore, and hence the value of the no-change forecast that Professor Armstrong is backing against Mr Gore and the IPCC’s dangerous global warming projection. The updated temperature chart can be seen in detail by clicking on the Whole-Earth Thermometer image to the top right of this page.

Written by admin

June 7th, 2018 at 6:24 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Are we living on a dangerously warming planet?

without comments

The news keeps coming in from the New York Times and other media that there is no longer any doubt that the Earth is getting dangerous warmer. If you believe that to be true, there is nothing that we can say to change your opinion. Only you can do that. And to do so, you first need to address this question: “Could I imagine anything that could possibly change my mind?”

If so, you might be interested in the short article on WUWT titled “Is the Earth becoming dangerously warmer?“. It might provide the information you are seeking.

April 2018 temperatures show little change

without comments

Our update of the Whole-Earth Thermometer chart (to the upper right of this page) with the UAH April 2018 global mean temperatures shows temperatures were remarkably close to the 2007 Climate Bet base year average of 0.16°C.

The chart as a whole could reasonably be characterised as showing temperatures drifting sideways, largely within a +/-0.3°C band. Not surprisingly, then, the cumulative absolute error of the Gore/IPCC dangerous warming projection has been smaller than that of the no-trend forecast for only 2 of the 124 months of the bet so far, and that was back in September and October 2010.

Written by admin

May 7th, 2018 at 10:53 am

Posted in Uncategorized

March 2018 cooler than same month of 2007 Bet base year

without comments

Temperatures have drifted up and down since Mr Gore warned of a dangerous warming “tipping point” at the start of 2007, as they always have. Eleven years on, the temperatures recorded for the first 3 months of this year look remarkably similar to the first 3 months of 2007: 0.26°C, 0.20°C, and 0.24°C compared to 0.43°C, 0.19°C, and 0.26°C. See the updated chart to the right, and click for a larger image and table.

Written by admin

April 14th, 2018 at 7:20 pm