The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

longines,tissot,fake rolex for sale,rolex day date,zenith,rolex datejust,cartier,omega,replica watches,u boat,rolex milgauss,patek philippe,rolex masterpiece,montblanc,rolex replica,a lange sohne,panerai,tag heuer

November 2019 sees global temperature above Bet warming line

without comments

With the release of the UAH November 2019 global temperature anomaly, there have been 28 months in which the anomaly equaled or exceeded the 3°C-per-century warming trend line projected from the 2007 Bet base year average. That compares with the 57 months in which the anomaly has been less than or equal to the scientific no-change forecast proposed by Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009) and the basis of Scott Armstrong’s challenge to Al Gore to bet on forecasts of global temperatures.

Those figures give a sense of how modest the IPCC’s 3°C-per-century warming trend is compared to month-to-month variations over the 143 months (nearly 12 years) of the extended Bet so far. The 28 months of temperature anomalies greater than or equal to the warming trend account for nearly 20% of months, while close to 40% of months have been cooler than the 2007 base year average.

For the latest data, click on the “Whole Earth Thermometer” toward the top right of this page.

Written by admin

December 13th, 2019 at 9:27 am

September 2019 anomaly above IPCC/Gore warming for first time in 2 years

without comments

September recorded the warmest global mean temperature anomaly since October of 2017. If the months of the fourth quarter of 2019 stay on the warmer side, 2019 could be the fourth year in twelve in which the annual average global temperature anomaly has been closer to a 3°C-per-century warming trend than to no-change. For the updated chart of progress of the Climate Bet, click on the Whole Earth Thermometer image on the top right of the screen.

Written by Heidi Mercer

October 12th, 2019 at 10:52 am

No change in global average temperatures from July to August

without comments

The UAH global average lower troposphere temperature anomaly remained unchanged in August 2019 from the previous month at 0.38°C. The month counts as the seventh win for Mr Gore out of the eight months of this year so far—the 44th win out of the 140 months of the extended bet, so far.

With no change in the average, it is interesting to observe to what extent the regional averages changed. Average temperature anomalies in the tropics fell from 0.61°C to 0.37°C over the land and rose from 0.40°C to 0.44°C over the sea. The corresponding figures for the northern polar region were a rise from 0.25°C to 0.53°C and a fall from 0.42°C to 0.33°C, and for the southern polar region were a fall from 0.86°C to 0.51°C, and a rise from 0.05°C to 0.38°C.

To see the updated “Whole-Earth Thermometer” chart summarising the progress of the Climate Bet so far, click on the graph on the top right of the page to see a larger version with data.

Written by admin

September 19th, 2019 at 9:21 pm

Warmer temperatures persist over 2019 to July

without comments

UAH’s measure of global average temperatures has not above the Al Gore/IPCC warming projection since February 2017, but the monthly mean temperatures this year have nevertheless remained closer to that projection than to the no-trend forecast in all but one of the seven months. For the 139 months of the Climate Bet so far, the monthly average temperature has been warmer than the warming projection for fewer than 19 percent of months, and has been below the no-trend forecast for 41 percent of months.

To see the updated Whole Earth Thermometer, click on the chart image on the top right of this page.

Written by admin

August 17th, 2019 at 4:19 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

June 2019 warmer than May, on average

without comments

At 0.47°C, June’s global temperature anomaly was up from May’s, and was the warmest since October 2017, 20 months ago. The June figure was also slightly warmer than the 2007 Bet base year’s maximum monthly anomaly of 0.43°C.

The experience of regions varied considerably, however, as US readers will likely have noticed. The anomaly for the 48 contiguous U.S. states was -0.64°C, which was even cooler than May, the previous month. Australia’s anomaly, while positive, was cooler than the previous 3 months, as was the case with the entire southern hemisphere over the land.

The northern polar region experienced a positive anomaly (0.90°C), but that was cooler than those of the 4 previous months, while the southern polar region experienced a negative anomaly (-0.39°C) that was cooler than the anomalies of the 8 previous months.

The updated chart (Whole Earth Thermometer), summarising the progress of The Climate Bet so far, can be inspected by clicking on the thumbnail chart to the top right of the screen.

Written by admin

July 5th, 2019 at 11:26 am

“Do we face dangerous global warming?”

without comments

Was the title of a talk that Scott Armstrong gave to his fellow Lehigh University Graduating Class of 1959 at their 60th Reunion on June 7. The invited talk addressed the question of whether the alarm over dangerous manmade global warming is a valid scientific claim, and presents findings from Scott’s research with Kesten Green. A copy of the slides for the talk is available from ResearchGate, here.

Written by admin

June 11th, 2019 at 1:44 pm

April 2019 warmer, again

without comments

The global mean UAH lower troposphere temperature anomaly ticked up again in April. So far, 2019 global monthly averages have all been warmer than the warmest month in 2018. For a larger chart showing the history of the Climate Bet, including the latest data, click on the Whole-Earth Thermometer image to the top right of this page.

Written by admin

May 13th, 2019 at 11:30 am

March quarter 2019 temperatures warmer than 2018

without comments

The UAH lower troposphere temperature global average anomalies for the first three months of 2019 have been higher than at any stage during 2018 to the extent that they were slightly closer to the 3°C-per-century warming projection from the IPCC than they were to the no-change (no-trend) forecast. By contrast, every month of 2018 was closer to the no-trend forecast. Over the 135 month term to-date of the extended Climate Bet, the global average temperature has been closer to the no-change forecast than to the IPCC “dangerous warming” forecast for more than 70% of months.

Written by admin

April 12th, 2019 at 11:51 am

February 2019 sees little change

without comments

The February 2019 global temperature anomaly figure (lower troposphere) from UAH has been added to the Climate Bet chart—aka Whole-Earth Thermometer—to the right. To see the chart in more detail and with the most recent 3 years of data, click on the chart image.

Written by admin

March 21st, 2019 at 8:42 am

Posted in Uncategorized

A warmer start to 2019 sees January a winning month for Mr Gore

without comments

At 0.37°C, the January 2019 anomaly was the highest since since December 2017. Just above the mid-point between the no-change from the 2007 average forecast of 0.159°C and the IPCC/Gore 3°C-per-century “dangerous” warming forecast for January of 0.505°C, the month counts as a win for Mr Gore.

So far, the monthly wins tally stands at:

dangerous warming trend: 40 months
no trend (Armstrong):         93 months.

Over the course of the Bet to date, the dangerous warming forecast has never been the better forecast for as many as 40% of months. The no-trend, no need for policy action, forecast remains the best bet, having won just under 70% of months so far.

Written by admin

February 12th, 2019 at 2:10 am